Sberbank says shock possible on Russian currency market Oct–Dec

MOSCOW, Jul 20 (PRIME) -- The Russian currency market may face a shock in October–December as weakening of the ruble may exceed a natural decrease on the back of falling oil prices, Sberbank said in a macroeconomic report seen by PRIME on Monday.

“A shock on the currency market in October–December 2015 cannot be ruled out, when volatility of the euro/U.S. dollar pair rises significantly. The fall of the ruble may exceed the natural level of a decrease caused by a fall in oil prices,” it said.

Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said earlier that the ruble will stand at 50–60 against the dollar in 2015. Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said the ruble has reached its fundamental  rate and is unlikely to fall significantly.

According to the report, Russia’s net private capital outflow is likely to rise by an extra $5 billion in October-December but decrease by the same $5 billion in 2016 after the central bank resumes repo operations.

The Economic Development Ministry expects the 2015 net capital outflow at $110 billion, but the minister said earlier in July that the figure may amount to $90 billion.

The central bank forecasts net private capital outflow at $111 billion in 2015, $87 billion in 2016 and $80 billion in 2017. Under the central bank’s risk scenario, the outflow may reach $131 billion in 2015, $89 billion in 2016 and $78 billion in 2017.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in June that Russia’s 2015 capital outflow is likely to stand at about $80 billion.

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